The Squad Endorses Bernie…Will It Be Enough?
Plus, the debate recap in five easy tweets.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez takes a stance, Joe Sestak terrorizes a donut shop, and a eulogy for a Democratic hero. This is the Progressive Showdown edition.
I’m Chris Erik Thomas. Welcome to Issue 25 of Rubber Chicken Circuit, the weekly election newsletter from Study Hall. PS: If you like this newsletter, hit the HEART button above. It helps us reach more readers.
The Headline
Is the AOC Endorsement Enough to Make America “Feel the Bern” Again?
After spending a day in the trenches in the Political Twitter microcosm occupied by Bernie Bros and Warren Warriors and reading enough polling data to make me feel like a FiveThirtyEight intern, the answer to the big question on the lips of the far left is… maybe.
As Tuesday’s Democratic debate was winding down, news leaked that Democratic star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would be endorsingBERNIE SANDERS along with Ilhan Omar. The two women are part of “The Squad,” a group of four freshman women of color in Congress who’ve come to represent a young, liberal wave of diversity in a political institution that’s historically been as old and white as a retirement home. The two other members, Rashida Tlaib and Ayanna Pressley, have yet to make any endorsements.
The news of AOC’s endorsement rightfully sent some shockwaves (and snark) through the far left both because an endorsement wasn’t expected for at least a few more months and, most importantly, it came as a surprise to some ELIZABETH WARREN fans — especially as she’s flown past Bernie in polling and become the new face of the liberal wave in the 2020 race. AOC’s endorsement gave the Sanders campaign the kind of “surprise bitch, I bet you thought you saw the last of me” energy it needed just as voters and the media were beginning to question whether Bernie should drop out and cede his support to Warren following his health scare.
There’s just one problem: his base has eroded since 2016. Yes, this might’ve been a defibrillating moment for Sanders’s core base but right now, that base is only 31% of his supporters from the last election according to a recent poll; another 30% have switched to Warren and the rest have filtered to other candidates. Even worse for Sanders is the fact that Warren’s rise has sapped voters from him. When it comes to second-choices, Warren has moved ahead of Sanders and by most data, she’s viewed favorably by Biden voters who are considering a second option to Uncle Joe.
The reality is that AOC and Omar’s endorsements are a very well executed move (they both told him over a week ago while he was hospitalized) to turn the Sanders ship around and bring back the demographics he’s losing to Warren — like women, white people, and those making more than $50K a year — which might be trickier than they think. For the AOC endorsement to matter, she’ll need to win over the voters he’s lost and there’s no real way to know how useful she’ll be yet Its been months since any high-quality polling data has been done on her and back in March’s Quinnipiac poll, the data didn’t paint a great picture; 38% of respondents hadn’t heard enough about her to form an opinion and of those who did, more said she was bad for the party than good. Or, as Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said: “Most voters either don't like the firebrand freshman Congresswoman or don't know who she is.”
A summer spent being targeted by Trump has almost certainly boosted her name recognition and favorability, but if the AOC endorsement is going to make America “Feel the Bern” again, these progressive powerhouses will need to do more than just fire up Sanders’ shrinking base — they’ll have to win over everyone else.
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The Debate Recap in 5 Tweets
There were many, many, many debate recaps that said many, many, many things. Winners were crowned and losers were shunned, but until the dust settles and polling data flows in, it’s hard to say whether the Moderate v. Far Left brawl that broke out on stage will matter a week from now. Rather than rehash the rehash, here are five tweets that sum up the big, overstuffed October debate.
The Leftovers
The Saddest Donut Shop Debate Of All Time
If you thought nothing could top the depressing energy of watching MARIANNE WILLIAMSON drink black coffee out of a beer stein at a Chicago gay bar while watching an LGBTQ town hall she wasn’t invited to, I’d like to introduce you to JOE SESTAK.
The person you’ll never remember is running for president decided to terrorize a New Hampshire donut shop for the saddest one-man debate of all time featuring one alarmingly large coffee cup and enough technical issues to give me heartburn. Who actually watched his livestream? Surprise bitch, it was Marianne across the room in a booth.
Kidding. She was probably busy calmly taking espresso shots at a lesbian dive bar that night but, judging by this undated photographic evidence, free coffee shop wifi is a beacon of refuge for bottom feeder candidates trying to save some cash.
This Week on… Who’s That White Guy?
Besides being a totally swole hunk of spunk for the suburban moms on his cul-de-sac, he’s also running for president! Who knew?! Wait, who is this man? Scroll to the end for the name you’ll forget five minutes later.
Rest in Power, Elijah Cummings.
A Tribute to the Maryland Congressman Who Took on Trump.
In lieu of detailing the tit for tat name-calling that Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi devolved into over Trump’s decision to pull U.S. forces out of Syria, which betrayed the Kurdish soldiers the U.S. had worked with during the fight again ISIS, the focus is instead going to go towards yesterday’s news that longtime Representative ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS has died at 68.
Before entering Congress in 1996 as the representative for Maryland's 7th Congressional District, Cummings was known for his civil rights activism. In the summer of 1962, when he was just 11-years-old, Cummings endured taunting by white mobs throwing rocks and bottles as he and other African American children integrated the Riverside Park pool in South Baltimore.
More recently, the 12-term Congressman endured the taunting of another racist white person, President Trump, as Cumming took on the role of chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform — using his power to investigate Trump and his administration. In his final months in Congress, he called Trump’s efforts to block congressional inquiries “far worse than Watergate.”
As people from all sides of the political spectrum come together to remember him, here’s April D. Ryan, a White House correspondent and friend of Cummings, talking about his life and legacy on CNN yesterday morning.
WHO’S THAT WHITE GUY? It’s Former Maryland Congressman and Current Loser John Delaney. See you next week for another serving of Rubber Chicken Circuit.ee you next week for another serving of Rubber Chicken Circuit.
