Beto Slides Into Polling Obscurity & Iowa State Fair Aftermath
Plus, De Blasio's food rampage and Big Numbers.
Iowa polling shakes up the race, Beto’s big slump, notable numbers, $80 billion high-speed internet plans, and Biden’s latest gaffe. This is the State Fair Shakedown edition.
I’m Chris Erik Thomas. Welcome to Issue 16 of Rubber Chicken Circuit, the weekly election newsletter from Study Hall. Read more about us, subscribe here, and forward us to your friends!
The Headline
An Iowa Poll Shakes Up the Bottom of the Barrel
While top-tier contenders continue fighting for second place behind Biden, another fight is happening at the bottom of the barrel. Think of it like a royal rumble but for mole people, or a pack of rats fighting for a slice of $1 pizza on the NYC subway. A new Monmouth University Poll of Iowa voters brought good news for two outsider candidates and some very embarrassing bad news for a former frontrunner.
After outspending Trump and every Democratic candidate in ad spending in the month since he launched his campaign, billionaire TOM STEYER hit 3% support among Iowa voters. Now that he’s also officially hit 130,000 donors, he’s only one poll away from making it to the debates next month, which would allow him to show off the three policy ideas he has listed on his website and reinforce the idea that the presidency can be bought. Yay, America!
Steyer may still be on the brink of hitting the September debates, but tech entrepreneur ANDREW YANG has passed the DNC’s benchmarks and is now the ninth person to qualify for the debate stage. In the past two debates, Yang’s outsider campaign has impressed just enough to make an impact, but his campaign seems more likely to sink than swim when he’s facing off against a stage full of frontrunners next month.
Now, it’s time to talk about the bad news. Both Steyer and Yang polled better than BETO O’ROURKE, which is a pretty clear sign that things are not working out for the Texan who many (including whoever greenlit his Vanity Fair cover) thought would glide to the nomination. Instead, he’s gone from polling at 6% in Iowa back in April to not even hitting 1% now. He’s still guaranteed to be on the debate stage next month but really, at this point his odds of a comeback in the race are looking as grim as the No. 4 nuclear reactor in the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.
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The Notable Numbers
$2,775
That’s the amount of money JULIÁN CASTRO spent to put an ad on Fox News in Bedminster, N.J. on Tuesday, where Trump is currently unwinding from his full-time job of being a racist. Among other things, the 30-second spot calls out the president for stoking “the fire of racists” that led to the death of 22 people in the El Paso mass shooting.
51%
That’s the lead JOHN HICKENLOOPER has over every other Colorado Democrat in a new poll for the state’s Senate race. Now all he needs to do is get his head out of his ass, drop out of the presidential race, and help win back the Senate.
$195
The amount of money a beef Florentine would set you back at Chi Spacca, a posh restaurant in Hollywood that played host to BERNIE SANDERS’ latest attempt to woo voters of color to his campaign. The dinner included strategies to win voters away from Biden and Warren, but also included rapper Vic Mensa getting shut down when he tried to ask Sanders about Palestine. The report from Vanity Fair came as part of a suspiciously heavy week of news about his push to win over black and Latino voters that also included a video of rapper Cardi B talking to Sanders about raising the minimum wage.
80%
The percent reduction in gun deaths if ELIZABETH WARREN becomes president. The candidate famous for her plans has made that number her goal in her fight to end gun violence. Among the executive actions and legislation that she’d implement, there would be: restrictions on firearm sales that limit sales to one gun per month, the creation a federal licensing system for all firearms and ammunition, and the implementation of a total assault weapons ban.
11
The number of Iowa State Fair foods and drinks that BILL DE BLASIO put in his mouth over a span of eight hours, according to his campaign. That’s just shy of the 15 people who came to his campaign event.
$80,000,000,000
That’s the cost to bring high-speed internet to rural America, according to PETE BUTTIGIEG’s new policy proposal. It’s one of the key points of his new plan to transform the struggling economy of rural voters that includes $50 billion for farmers to fight climate change and $5 billion for apprenticeship programs. It’s the latest push by Mayor Pete to help out rural Americans and Native American tribes after last week’s plan to improve their healthcare was released.
100%
The likelihood of JOE SESTAK winning Best Dressed at his retirement home’s bingo night, even if he has a 0% chance of being president.
The Leftovers
JOE BIDEN: “Poor Kids’ Are Just as Bright as ‘White Kids’.” MARIANNE WILLIAMSON: "Avatar told the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth about some very serious socioeconomic realities in our world today." KAMALA HARRIS: Smart, compassionate and “makes no apologies for being a bulldog who earned a reputation for being tough on wrongdoers.” KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND: She’s going to spend $1 million in TV ads to try making it to the September debates. AMY KLOBUCHAR: Playing the middle right down to refusing to pick a better state fair. CORY BOOKER: The “black liberal vegan with a Hollywood actress girlfriend” ate two fried PB&Js and got one standing ovation at the Iowa State Fair. WAYNE MESSAM: Finally beat someone in a poll. Sadly, it was a poll done with corn kernels. JOHN DELANEY: Why did this New Yorker profile feel the need to tell us he has a "patient grin that reveals only the top row of his teeth"? JAY INSLEE: Washington state’s governor is polling at fifth place in Washington state. TULSI GABBARD: Reporting for active duty with Hawaii Army National Guard for two weeks. TIM RYAN: 'White supremacists think that Donald Trump is a white supremacist.” SETH MOULTON: If you forgot he’s running, don’t worry. Everyone did. MICHAEL BENNET: He may never poll above 1%, but at least he can flip some pork. STEVE BULLOCK: If you woke up today wondering how Bullock keeps his bod fit on the campaign trail, you’re in luck. Also seek help.
The Trump Check
When Is Coverage Tough Enough? Depends Who You Ask.
If you’re alive and living in the world right now, you’ve experienced the Trump News Dread. That chilling, exhausting reaction to a ping coming from your phone informing you that the president has done another insane thing. Sometimes, it’s just some new chapter in his big book of racist rhetoric and, other times, it’s a threat of nuclear war. Casual stuff. We are living in a Category 5 hurricane of Trump coverage but is the coverage fair?
According to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, yes and no. It just depends who you ask. Among the responses, 37% think the media is “too tough” on him and 37% believe the media is “not tough enough,” while 11% would categorize it as “just right.” It’s like The Story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears except instead of testing how hot the porridge is, they’re deciding how honest to be about the racist, xenophobic person occupying the Oval Office.
The responses are also, unsurprisingly, split along party lines: “75% of Republicans polled finding the media is “too tough” on the president, and 69% of Democrats finding the media is “not tough enough.” Among independent voters, 32% believe the media is “too tough” and 31% believe they are “not tough enough.”
None of this is shocking because there’s really no winning here. Trump has made demonizing the media his full-time job and not even the Trump TV propaganda machine Fox News is safe from his wrath. He’s going to use the media as a target no matter what, so they might as well just tell the truth: Trump is a racist.
If you need us, we’ll be thinking about all of the corn dogs inhaled by presidential candidates at the Iowa State Fair. See you next week for another serving of Rubber Chicken Circuit.
