The Circuit: Democratic Debate Guides! #KamalasCorner Controversy! A New “Wonky” Woman Emerges!
Democratic Debatocalypse predictions, Willie Nelson endorsements, the ethics of political op-eds, racial tension in South Bend, a plan to end chronic homelessness by 2028, and Trump’s lobster problem. This is the Wonky Woman and Rock Lobster edition.
I’m Chris Thomas. Welcome to Issue 08 of Rubber Chicken Circuit, the weekly election newsletter from Study Hall. Read more about us, subscribe here, and forward us to your friends!
Headliners
A Brief Guide to Next Week’s Democratic Debatocalypse.
In one week, the biggest battle since Game of Thrones will rip Miami apart, or at least destroy a campaign (if we’re lucky). Here’s what you need to know before the first Democratic Debatocalypse pits twenty candidates in a fight to the ideological death.
What days? Wednesday, June 26 and Thursday, June 27.
What time? 9 PM ET on both nights.
Where to watch on TV? NBC News, MSNBC in English. Telemundo in Spanish.
Where to watch online? NBC News' digital platforms, including NBCNews.com, MSNBC.com, the NBC News Mobile App, Roku, Apple TV and Amazon Fire TV, as well as Telemundo's digital platforms. NBC News will also stream the debates live and in full on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.
Who is on Night 1? Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke, Bill de Blasio, Tim Ryan, Julian Castro, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, and John Delaney.
Who is on Night 2? Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Marianne Williamson, John Hickenlooper, Andrew Yang, Pete Buttigieg, Kirsten Gillibrand, Michael Bennet, and Eric Swalwell.
Winners, Wildcards, and Other Predictions.
Barring some major catastrophe, ELIZABETH WARREN is going to dominate the first night’s relatively weak crop of candidates. Some people saw her placement in Night One as a curse keeping her away from a fight with Biden and Bernie, but steering clear of that fight in the first round is more of a blessing for the Senator. She can clean house and prove why she’s surging in the polls to a national audience before the far more vicious second night pits most of the top-polling candidates against each other.
The only thing standing in the way of Warren having her early-season Game of Thrones moment and rising from the ashes of her enemies like Daenerys Targaryen (pre-meltdown) is a Texas-sized obstacle named BETO O’ROURKE. The favored candidate of WIllie Nelson has slid into near-obscurity since his campaign began but the guy knows how to go viral. On the flipside of this, if he fails to catch a break here, maybe it’ll convince him to do the logical thing Texans want and run for Senate again.
Moving on to Night Two, the big showdown is Biden v. Bernie. I’ll get to that, but first, a quick moment for ANDREW YANG, who thinks standing on stage next to Joe Biden will make everyone finally google what the hell the “Yang Gang” is. I’d put the odds of this strategy pushing him past a 1 percent polling average at about that same number — unless he’s planning to wear an “I’m With Sleepy →“ shirt on stage.
Speaking of the Sleepiest Little Amtrak Masseuse, the odds of JOE BIDEN walking off the stage without saying something stupid are low; that’s his favorite hobby by now. In the past twenty-four hours, he defended the idea that he’s too “old-fashioned” by talking about the “civility” of two Southern senators who were fiercely opposed to desegregation. The question as the dust settles is whether Biden’s “time machine back to better days” schtick will hold up with voters and stem his shrinking lead in the polls.
Speaking of shrinking leads in the polls, BERNIE SANDERS has hit a polling wall in the past few weeks. While Biden has the most to lose by publicly defending himself for two hours, Bernie has the most to gain. With his biggest ideological rival, Elizabeth Warren, consigned to Night One, he’ll be free to lean into the far-left democratic socialist message he’s been honing since the last election and rip into Biden’s outdated candidacy. Bernie hasn’t hit a polling average above 24 percent yet so if he wants to prove himself, he’s going to have to do more than wave his arms around and repeat the same message he’s been spouting for decades.
Of course, all of these predictions could be entirely wrong because I’m still convinced that spiritual guru MARIANNE WILLIAMSON will cast an intricate hex on everything in a 50 mile radius, throw every candidate’s chakras off balance, and close their inner eye forever. Or she might skip the intricacies of a curse and just throw gemstone daggers at everyone before levitating to the White House in a floating energy orb. Either way, she’ll have to do something to appease the Chapo Trap House fans who donated to get her on the debate stage. I cannot wait to see what level of crazy spirit she brings to Miami.
#KamalasCorner, Criticism, Accountability, and Trollops.
There are a lot of ways for candidates to get their message out and one route is the op-ed. More candidates than I can keep track of have written (or at least had someone ghostwrite) an impassioned essay on a particular position, but Essence is taking this practice one questionable step further with #KamalasCorner, a monthly op-ed by KAMALA HARRIS.
Yesha Callahan, Essence’s Editorial Director News, Politics & Issues, is not taking the criticism over the move well. She recently stopped accepting op-eds from freelancers with no advance warning because “original reporting has a higher reach than op-eds.” It’s fair to change strategies but in an industry that feels like the Titanic (post-iceberg), op-ed “anchor” columns can be financial lifelines, especially to writers of color that often freelance for Essence. Having that taken away with no warning before finding out Harris is getting her own column is like pouring salt in a wound (or realizing your life raft can only hold one person, so you have to die, Leonardo DiCaprio). In response to critiques, Callahan clapped back at the freelancers by highlighting original reporting happening on the site like this piece on French racism, which is good, but then also called a woman who critiqued her a trollop (an old-timey word for slut), which is not so good.
Putting aside all of the freelancer drama around this, a bigger issue is that there’s no clarity on how #KamalasCorner will be edited and managed. Adhering to critical and ethical standards is important for any piece of writing, but it’s absolutely essential for someone trying to run the country. If these standards are cast aside in the quest for clicks (like Rahm Emanuel becoming an editor for The Atlantic), Essence could essentially be giving her a PR playground to air out policies and positions completely unchallenged, which is exactly what good journalism should never do.
Have feedback or want to slip us a tip? Reply to this or email chris@studyhall.xyz with your scoops and suggestions.
The Pack
PETE BUTTIGIEG: Racial Tension Returns to South Bend.
Over the weekend, a black man in South Bend was shot and killed by an officer after allegedly raising a knife at them. The tragedy comes as Buttigieg has struggled to win over African-American voters around the nation and brings his controversial decision to fire South Bend’s first black police chief in 2012 back to light — right as the big story with Buttigieg was a $7 million fundraising haul in April that cemented his frontrunner status. It’s a tragic, unexpected litmus test for Mayor Pete and, unlike in 2012, the whole nation is watching. We’ll see if he goes farther than ordering all police to turn on their body cameras when interacting with civilians on duty, which they should already be doing since that’s the point of body cameras?
AMY KLOBUCHAR: The 100, (Maybe) Coming Soon to an Oval Office Near You.
The Minnesota Senator isn’t moving to The CW, but she does have her own version of The 100 for potential voters. She just revealed 100 actions she would take in her first 100 days as president if she were elected and it covers everything from voting rights and prescription drug pricing to antitrust enforcement. It’s a great, detail-oriented roadmap that’s a big win for the struggling candidate. Now, if she could just fire her whoever is picking the terrible walk-out music for her (I’m still traumatized by “The Fight Song”), she’ll be set.
KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND: The Media’s New “ Wonky” Woman.
The media loves to spend its days wondering why a particularly “wonky” woman can’t catch on with voters. In the early months of the year, it was Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and now, as Warren skyrockets to third place in most polls, the target has moved to Kirsten Gillibrand. She’s “smart and wonky” (but “it works for her”) and a champion of women’s rights but, you guessed it, things just aren’t going according to plan. There’s no telling what will happen a week (or a month) from now, but I hope the media will stop with sexist, “will anyone hear her voice” profiles like this man at The Atlantic wrote and give her the fair coverage she deserves.
https://twitter.com/SenGillibrand/status/1141077057599934464
JULIÁN CASTRO: Bringing His HUD Cred to the Homeless Crisis.
Obama’s former housing secretary wants to end chronic homelessness by 2028, give tax credits to people whose rent exceeds 30 percent of their income, construct more public housing, and a $200 billion Green Infrastructure Fund to improve public transit. The policies come as part of a detailed, three-part housing plan that the low-polling candidate has released this week; just in time for the electorate (and rival candidates) to soak it in ahead of next week’s debates.
JOHN HICKENLOOPER: The Anti-Socialist Shuffle.
One of Colorado’s “Democratic bottom-dwellers” has found his lane and is Tokyo Drifting into it in an attempt to be noticed. Hickenlooper went after socialism again this week (after being booed at California’s Democratic Convention for saying “socialism is not the answer”) when he took a swipe at Sanders’ latest defense of “democratic socialism,” saying: “I fundamentally disagree that we should do away with the democratic, regulated capitalism that has guided this country for over 200 years.” Someone should probably tell him Millennials and Gen Z are projected to be 37 percent of the 2020 electorate and 49.6 percent of this new generation of voters prefer living in a socialist country.
CORY BOOKER: The Boss Baby (Bonds).
In Booker’s America, every baby can be the Boss Baby. The New Jersey Senator introduced his new “big idea” to give every child in America a “baby bond” of $1,000 when they’re born. The savings account would then accrue money every year depending on a family’s income level. I can’t wait for Millennials (read: me) to go full 19 Kids and Counting just to collect our coin.
STEVE BULLOCK: The biggest loser of the DNC’s “horseshit” debate rules.
If there were ever a time for the Montana governor to go balls-to-the-wall weird with his campaign, it's in the aftermath of finding out he didn’t make it to the debates, while Marianne Williamson (a spiritual guru who wants to heal America with love) will be onstage. Sure, Bullock isn’t the only one to get knocked out, but he is a Democrat who won reelection three times in a state that Trump won by 20 points. At least his sense of injustice brought us this Montana man (and his dog) going off on the “horseshit” DNC.
The Leftovers
JOHN DELANEY and MIKE GRAVEL: Their campaigns summed up in a tweet.
TULSI GABBARD: Wants to solve "differences through diplomacy" with the No More Presidential Wars Act. JAY INSLEE: 64 percent of Democrats are into his climate-only debate idea. WAYNE MESSAM: The guy who stiffed all his staffers won’t be at the debate happening 22 miles away from the town he’s mayor of. Shocker. TIM RYAN: I really hope having him on the debate stage will help me remember who he is. ERIC SWALWELL: “23 percent of Swalwell’s tweets are about Trump,” a new report declares as ”Obsessed” by Mariah Carey plays in the background. BILL DE BLASIO: The man almost as unpopular as Trump in the city he’s literally the mayor of has made it to the debates. MICHAEL BENNET: Crossed “release a book” off of the election bingo board. SETH MOULTON: “80 percent of 2020 primary voters either had never heard of Moulton (59 percent) or had no opinion of him (21 percent).”
The Trump Check
Lots of trouble. Lots of bubble. Rock Lobster!
The big story this week is that Donald Trump officially launched his reelection campaign in the only state to match his level of insanity (Florida), but his rambling announcement was just a time loop of 2016; albeit without the Escalator of Dreams. He lied and he obsessed over his election victory (while leaving out that he got 2,864,903 less votes than Hillary Clinton). His crowd chanted “CNN sucks” and incited violence against Democrats. We’ve seen it all before and we’ll keep seeing it so instead, I’m here to talk to you about lobsters.
The crustacean isn’t just great fodder for The B52’s. It’s also a slippery, seafaring symbol of Trump’s trade war. On The Atlantic this week, economist Chad P. Bown used Maine’s biggest export to tell a story about why Trump trying to outsmart China is going as well as this person trying to slide down an escalator. That’s a metaphor for trying to use tariffs as a shortcut to a trade deal. Since the trade war began, “American lobster sales to China have decreased by 70 percent,” while sales of lobster to China by Maine’s lobster nemesis, Canada, have doubled. That’s because China is cutting tariffs for other countries to make up for the tariffs hikes imposed by the United States; and it isn’t just good news for the Canadian lobster business.
While Donald “Tariff Man” Trump beats his chest and continues to fundamentally misunderstand how the global trading economy works, China is playing their, uh, trump card. On average, it’s “14 percent cheaper in China to buy something from Canada, Japan, Brazil, or Europe than it is to buy something from the United States.” Trump might still think that some magic new trade deal will solve everything and spur an economic miracle but right now, while American farmers and fishers bear the brunt of the impact of the trade war, Chinese consumers and companies are moving on from American goods. Do we really think they’ll come back around after Trump finishes burning all his bridges?
Please light a prayer candle for the “Democratic bottom-dwellers” who think the debates will change their fate. See you next week for another serving of Rubber Chicken Circuit.
