The Circuit: Iowa Democratic Speed Dating! Abortion Missteps! The Hug from ‘Good Will Hunting!’
Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” Biden’s abortion rights headache, campaign reboots, standalone climate debates, and a plea for three candidates to drop their White House ambitions and run for Senate. This is the ‘Good Will Hunting” Hug and Hyde Amendment edition.
I’m Chris Thomas. Welcome to Issue 7 of Rubber Chicken Circuit, the weekly election newsletter from Study Hall. Read more about us, subscribe here, and forward us to your friends!
Headliners
Iowa Speed Dating Part 1: “Old Town Road” and OneRepublic.
Finally, TIM RYAN has done something interesting! Straight White Man #62 managed to stand out in a sea of 19 Democratic presidential candidates at the IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S 2019 HALL OF FAME DINNER — a.k.a. the 2020 Iowa Speed Dating Challenge. With only five minutes to hone their stump speeches at the annual dinner, the “walkout song” became an artform for the candidates looking to inject some viral energy into their campaigns.
The Ohio representative walked on stage to the tune of Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” which we’re 99.99% sure was picked for him by someone much cooler, because there’s no way he was able to pick the best walkout song of the entire event on his own. We don’t see Ryan riding the “Old Town Road” straight to the White House, but at least the song helped people remembered he’s running. Progress!
Besides the Lil Nas X track, there were a few more surprises (Kirsten Gillibrand picked Lizzo’s “Good as Hell” and John Hickenlooper decided OneRepublic’s “Good Life” was a good idea) and more than a few achingly boring choices. Is anyone surprised that Punk Rock Bro™ Beto picked his favorite Clash song “Clampdown” or that Bernie Sanders went with John Lennon and the Plastic Ono Band’s “Power to the People?” Hey, at least they’re not dabbing.
Iowa Speed Dating Part 2: Bagpipes, Ground Games, and a Biden No-Show.
The event wasn’t just about proving who should be in charge of the aux cable at a house party (none of them). The 19 candidates also channeled their inner Hunger Games and fought to the proverbial death to stand out, except for Joe Biden who skipped it with another convenient excuse (his granddaughter‘s high school graduation). In the 48-hour madness of town hall meetings, selfies, and stump speeches, Iowans witnessed light-up “Cory Booker 2020” signs, John Delaney’s bagpiper, and Pete Buttigieg playing blues music on an electric keyboard.
Putting aside all the pandemonium and pandering, the event served as the best evidence for who is winning the ground game in Iowa: ELIZABETH WARREN and CORY BOOKER. Among the crowded field, these two candidates have gone all-in on Iowa, with Booker hiring 42 full-time staffers and Warren hiring over 50 people. This outsized investment in building up their Iowa staff and volunteers paid off as supporters showed up en masse, but it also came at a curious time for both candidates.
According to the Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll, despite Booker’s big crowds at the event, he’s still polling at 1%, while Warren has surged to 15% with her encyclopedia of policy proposals. A light-up sign is great but so is hitting your 30,000th selfie with supporters, which Warren effectively turned into a political weapon. “Why do I have the time to do that,” she asked the crowd during her speech. “Because I’m not spending my time with high-dollar donors and with corporate lobbyists. I’m spending my time with you.” Biden, take note.
JOE BIDEN: “Failure of logic,” heart, and Hyde.
The Amtrak Masseuse’s thoughts on abortion are responsible for the frontrunner’s first terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week in his campaign. Last week, Biden got caught in a crossfire over the Hyde Amendment, a 1976 policy that restricts government funding for most abortions. Biden supported the amendment for decades, up until last Thursday, when he abrubtly reversed course. After saying he doesn’t apologize for his “last position,” Biden announced he can “no longer support” it because “circumstances have changed” in America.
His about-face on the amendment was all the political ammo his opponents needed, but it also illuminated the tricky catch-22 for the amendment Democrats have passed through Congress for years. The issue is that the Hyde Amendment doesn’t go through Congress on its own; it’s tucked into spending bills that fund major departments. In September, a spending bill with Hyde in it that funded the departments of education, labor, health and human services, and defense got “yes” votes from ten current presidential nominees. It’s only now, as anti-abortion activists go full blast towards overturning Roe v. Wade that it’s become a national issue.
The problems for Biden don’t start and end at Hyde. A new report surfaced yesterday that details his past skepticism (and sexism) when abortion rights activists tried to convince him in 1991 that Clarence Thomas would be disastrous for women’s rights. After the activists urged him and the rest of the panel of white men to consider how Thomas would impact abortion access, Biden told the women they showed a “failure of logic.” Creepy Uncle Joe knew in his heart that Judge Thomas wouldn’t be as extreme as “some of his statements,” which proved...false! . Biden is still ahead in the polls, but that might change as abortion rights have become Iowa’s #1 issue.
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The Pack
PETE BUTTIGIEG: A limp plan to stand up to Israel’s West Bank annexing.
Mayor Pete tried to sell his past as a military veteran to voters on Tuesday in his first speech dedicated to foreign policy. Among the unsurprising (reinstating the Iran nuclear deal and fighting Russian election interference) he also issued a vaguely-worded ultimatum to Israel: If Netanyahu proceeds with plans to annex parts of the West Bank, Buttigieg would “take steps” to ensure American taxpayers wouldn’t foot the bill. Buttigieg stopped short of saying he would actually work to stop the illegal annexation, which is pretty important to that two-state solution he wants.
KAMALA HARRIS: A campaign reboot runs into wrinkles in time.
Reboot blues have hit California’s former “top cop.” The Senator leaned into her record as prosecutor this past weekend and laid into “self-appointed political commentators” for not understanding how complex the criminal justice system is. Her new tactic of being “smart on crime” comes amidst a wave of reports questioning her decisions on everything from helping victims of Catholic Church child abuse to policies that would disclose police misconduct to defendants.
MARIANNE WILLIAMSON: Home is where the votes are.
There are a lot of ways to court voters in a historically crowded race but the spiritual-guru-turned-bottom-of-the-pack-candidate took it to the next level: Williamson has been living in a Des Moines, Iowa condo for three months. It’s not the first time a candidate has made the move; Connecticut senator Chris Dodd relocated in 2007 and former US Rep Dick Gephardt moved his mom (lol) to Des Moines in 1988 to campaign on his behalf. Since you’re probably just finding out who these people are, it’s probably safe to say that Williamson’s move will help as much as her new healing crystals.
BERNIE SANDERS: The “hug from Good Will Hunting” in human form.
The Vermont senator’s new Time cover may look straight out of a TV Land political sitcom, but the 7,000-plus word profile offers great insight into Sanders’ strategy for connecting individual pain to larger systemic issues. Or, as writer Anand Giridharadas puts it, it explains why Bernie’s “speeches are like that hug in Good Will Hunting.” It’s a strategy that seems to be working so far, but will it be enough to convince America to elect an almost-octogenarian to the Oval Office when so many younger candidates are running this year on platforms inspired by Bernie’s policies?
JAY INSLEE: Fighting the DNC for a climate debate.
The world is melting but, according to DNC Chair Tom Perez, holding a climate-focused debate is “just not practical” because a “president must be able to multitask.” That ridiculous assertion came after Inslee asked for a 90-minute debate focused on the climate crisis, which, you know, impacts literally every aspect of our lives. Oh, and if Inslee decides to participate in (or hold his own) climate debate, he “will not be invited to future debates,” according to the DNC.
TULSI GABBARD: A major profile piece forgets key Assad details.
Hawaii’s presidential candidate has more controversial opinions than Warren has policies, but one of her most controversial ideas failed to make it into NY Mag’s nearly 7,000-word profile on her (what’s with all these mega-long profiles?) When the topic of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons on his own people is brought up, there’s no mention that Gabbard is still skeptical that this ever happened — despite evidence gathered by the United Nations. It’s one thing to not want to dive into another costly, deadly, and unnecessary war, but when you won’t call Assad a war criminal and ignore evidence, it needs to be called out.
The Leftovers
The Senate Switch
Sometimes you have to give up on being America’s Next Presidential Superstar and defeat D.C.’s swamp creature, Mitch McConnell. That’s the message many Democrats are hoping will pierce the egos of STEVE BULLOCK, JOHN HICKENLOOPER, and BETO O’ROURKE and convince them to listen to logic and fight to take back the Senate in their home states.
JULIÁN CASTRO: The first candidate to visit Flint, Michigan released a plan to fight lead poisoning. AMY KLOBUCHAR: Trump treats farmers like "poker chips" in his "bankrupt casinos.” ANDREW YANG: “The Democratic Party needs to try to gravitate away from identity politics.” KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND: Double-qualified for the debates with 65K donors. SETH MOULTON: Why is one of his campaign slogans “F*ck It, It's the Right Thing To Do?” MIKE GRAVEL: Endorsed by the guy who threw his shoes at George W. Bush. MICHAEL BENNET: “People should be freaking furious.” ERIC SWALWELL: Channelling major Jeb Bush “Please Clap” energy. BILL DE BLASIO and WAYNE MESSAM: They both got zero votes for president in a major Iowa poll. JOHN DELANEY: This person he paid to wave a sign is more interesting than his entire campaign.
The Trump Check
42% for President 45 and other “devastating” numbers.
There’s trouble in Trumpland. According to a new Quinnipiac poll pitting Trump against the leading 2020 candidates in one-on-one matchups, the president hits a ceiling of 42% of the total popular vote. In Trump a versus Biden fight, the Democratic frontrunner would lead 53 to 40%; Trump would lose 49 to 41% against Sanders, 49 to 41% against Harris, 49 to 42% against Warren, 47 to 42% against Buttigieg; and even 47 to 42% against Booker, whose polling average right now is 2.5% nationally.
That isn’t the only bad news Trump is trying to distract from by calling Biden a “dummy” and gushing about “beautiful” letters from Kim Jong Un. A New York Times report detailed the meltdown Trump has been having over a “devastating 17-state poll conducted by his campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio.” Across key states he needs to win, the president is trailing Biden so badly that Trump told his aides to deny the internal polling numbers. If we could just ignore and deny all of the numbers we don’t want to see, we’d have done that already with our student loans, but that’s not how the world works.
Trump may have the advantage of a strong economy on his side right now, but there’s a long road to November 2020. A lot can happen in a year and, just like his poll numbers, significant digits for economic growth aren’t looking so hot either.
We can’t wait for Marianne Williamson to open a crystal healing supply shop in Des Moines’ local mall when this is all over. See you next week for another serving of Rubber Chicken Circuit.
